Arthur Hayes: US-China Trade War Could Drive Bitcoin Price to $1 Million
In a bold new prediction that has immediately sparked controversy in the crypto world, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes suggests that an escalation in the US-China trade war could drive Bitcoin price to $1 million.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, argues that escalating trade tensions between the US and China will destabilize the traditional financial system, potentially pushing Bitcoin price to $1 million.
Hayes emphasizes that even if President Donald Trump’s policies change, the US’s long-term reputation in global trade will inevitably be damaged. This erosion of confidence could lead to increased demand for neutral assets like gold and Bitcoin. As geopolitical tensions rise and the landscape of economic alliances shifts, Hayes points to Bitcoin’s unique position as a politically neutral asset that can thrive amid global uncertainty.
The ongoing trade war between the US and China has already caused significant economic shifts. For example, in early April 2025, the US imposed a 10% tariff on all imports, prompting China (already facing high trade tariffs of up to 34%) to announce retaliatory measures effective April 10. These developments have caused a storm of volatility in global markets.
Hayes predicts that the USD/CNY exchange rate could reach 10.00, suggesting that Chinese President Xi Jinping is unlikely to change China’s economic policy in response to US pressure. He believes that this scenario could serve as a catalyst for Bitcoin to reach $1 million.
Additionally, Hayes argues that such trade disputes could weaken the appeal of U.S. bonds and stocks, causing investors to seek refuge in alternative assets. This shift could further strengthen Bitcoin’s importance as a hedge against traditional market volatility.
In a related context, Hayes also predicts that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2025, assuming the Federal Reserve ends quantitative easing.